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Campaign analysis: Tuesday May 3
Daniel Forman's daily diary of the election campaign.
Tuesday May 3, 11:25am
Nationally the polls now look strong for Tony Blair but as the ICM survey in today's Guardian shows, there is no such thing as uniform national swing.
It has the Conservatives on course to take back Finchley and Golders Green (42nd on their target list) and yet lose out in Shipley (10th) again.
Similarly the Lib Dems look likely to increase their overall share of the vote but fail to capture seats such as Haltemprice and Howden that a small swing should deliver.
That kind of discrepancy is likely to repeated across the country on Thursday, proving perhaps that all politics is local.
The phrase is never more true than in Scotland and Wales where devolution has meant Westminster elections now have a very different agenda than they do in England, with health and education policy all but irrelevant.
The SNP and Plaid Cymru also add an extra dimension, with some intriguing four-way marginals, even if neither are making much of their commitment to independence.
That is not even to mention Northern Ireland, where, as ever, a whole different election is taking place.
Differential swing, as opposed to differential turnout, could also have an effect on the future shape of a Labour government.
The consensus in the run-up to this poll was that Blair needed a big majority to keep the New Labour flame alive.
The theory was that a reduced parliamentary party would remove many of the Blairite 1997 intake from the Commons, leaving behind a rump of Old Labour and Brownite MPs who would necessitate a more traditional agenda and put an end to any more radical, marketising ideas such as tuition fees and foundation hospitals.
But the ICM findings present a different possibility. That is that marginals such as Shipley, with young loyal junior minister Chris Leslie, could be saved and apparently safer seats such as Finchley lost.
Rudi Vis, who is defending Margaret Thatcher's old constituency for Labour, was first elected in 1997 but has become something of a second term rebel, revolting over Iraq and top-up fees.
Such results could leave Blair with a reduced majority but with several of his shock troops intact.
One explanation is that voters in tight marginals are more aware that the national result depends on them and have been the recipients on several senior ministerial visits and campaign spending. It is no coincidence that Blair has personally visited Shipley at least three times.
Similarly the electorate in "safer" seats may feel more inclined to protest by staying at home or defecting to the Lib Dems.
The swingometers on Thursday night could look odder than ever if the pendulum swings but the colours don't change.
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