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Campaign analysis: Friday April 22
Daniel Forman's daily diary of the election campaign.
Friday April 22, 10:20am
Asylum and immigration topping the campaign agenda today throws into the spotlight one of the central dilemmas facing Labour in this election.
The Conservatives are unquestionably stronger on this issue to the point where Michael Howard may have focussed on it too much - interestingly the polls suggest his lead may be slipping.
The Labour response has so far been to say that this is the only subject the Tories want to talk about, with the suggestion that they should be more careful in the language they use.
There is also little value in moving debate onto an area that benefits your rivals - hence Howard's lesser interest in schools and hospitals.
The Lib Dems were also accused today of ignoring the main debates by promoting their policies for women.
Charles Kennedy insisted he would not be deterred from his positive, issues-based campaign.
Yet as a true believer in the Clintonian tactic of "triangulation" (essentially positioning yourself between your opponents and your core support), Tony Blair knows he has to make "tough" noises himself.
Otherwise he risks exposing himself to the charge that he has ignored the problem and the public's concern.
But in doing so - and insisting in a blatant theft of Tory language that "it is not racist" to do so - Blair legitimises Howard's stance and undermines his own attack.
Anticipating the problem, Labour did make border protection one of its six key pledges in the pre-campaign.
However the Tories were at pains to point out the "irony" of Blair's assault on them for talking too much about immigration before doing so himself.
Howard's other strong card is crime, where his reputation as the toughest of the tough home secretaries might not inspire much love but does at least spark some admiration.
Labour's main tactic will be to try to dismantle Conservative policies as uncosted and unworkable, as much as promoting its own record and offer.
Perhaps the real irony is that Blair came to prominence as a politician because of his "tough on crime, tough on the causes of crime" stance (in a further twist the soundbite was actually coined by Gordon Brown).
Yet these two home affairs issues are, aside from trust, now his weakest flanks. Don't expect him to dwell on them for too long.
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