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Campaign analysis: Saturday April 9
Daniel Forman's daily diary of the election campaign.
Saturday April 9 9:00am GMT
This weekend, the first of the campaign, will be a leafleting frenzy in suburbia, shopping centres and elsewhere. Yet most of them will go straight in the bin.
That's why, although traditional techniques will have their place, both Labour and the Conservatives will be concentrating their efforts on getting the 800,000 or so undecided voters seen as crucial to the result to back them through high-tech call centres and personalised mailshots.
The Liberal Democrats, with fewer funds but more energised activists, will have to rely more on the hard slog on the ground but are past masters at directing their supporters to the swing seats and wavering wards.
However there is another "ground war" getting underway this weekend as each party - and particularly Labour - seeks to persuade people undecided about whether to vote or not to take part in the poll.
With surveys showing that, to put it bluntly, if Labour supporters turn out they will win the election and if they don't they won't, the party's high command won't be too unhappy about this message going around the country even if it puts a bit of wind in Tory sails.
They know that a close election will encourage more people to take part and the more people that take part the better the result for Labour.
Typically, Labour voters are seen as "softer" and less likely to turn out, especially if uninspired.
In contrast Conservatives are "harder" and more likely to participate come rain or shine. Michael Howard has certainly energised his base with his tough talk on Europe, crime and immigration.
But whatever efforts Tony Blair makes to confront his critics, expose his opponents and tailor his message to the disillusioned left and undecided right, the weather could play a bigger factor still.
A sunny day on May 5 could see Blair back in Number 10 the next day. An unseasonal shower, however, could be enough to deprive him of his majority.
He may yet regret not taking more action on global warming.
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