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Campaign analysis: Saturday April 23
Daniel Forman's daily diary of the election campaign.
Saturday April 23, 9:00am
The pollsters sometimes get it wrong, although they always have an excuse. The commentators often do, but nobody holds them to account.
But the bookies rarely do and they have had Labour nailed on for victory all along and show no sign of changing their tune.
So Labour seems set for another healthy majority, the main question being exactly how big that will be.
Now most of the main campaign themes are out there, the 'get the vote out' operations will kick into gear this weekend as activists hit the streets with a vengeance.
Turnout will be crucial, with the notoriously superstitious Tony Blair worried that talk of a third victory is far too premature if Labour supporters are not motivated to vote.
This was a man who refused to discuss the prospect of a landslide even as he flew back from Sedgefield in the early hours of May 2, 1997.
Expect to hear lots more about how the choice at this election is between himself and Michael Howard rather than the fictional Labour premier of the left wing's dreams.
As for the Opposition leader, he has some thinking as well as campaigning to do this weekend.
The consensus is that his strategy has not had the impact he expected. His Australian adviser Lynton Crosby told Conservative candidates this week to hold tight and a breakthrough would come.
But the murmurs in Westminster were that if the polls showed no movement by today then the discontent which Howard has done so well to contain could become more vocal.
If destined for defeat there is nothing to stop the second half of the election campaign becoming the first half of the Tory leadership race, as it did in 2001.
Aside from the Crosby option, there are two directions Howard could choose to take. One is to widen his campaign out to the public services and his vision of the country, playing on his personal story of the grammar school boy made good, as well as making more use of his team.
This is probably where the magic and missing five per cent of swing voters he needs to switch are.
But the risk is that the tactic would look at best like his first idea had failed and at worst like desperation.
The second idea is to go negative and nastier, the do-or-die nothing to lose approach.
This could include reviving Iraq, Dr David Kelly, weapons of mass destruction, raising Europe as an issue, and also going even harder on crime, asylum, immigration and 'Mr Blair'.
It is an unenviable choice.
One man who is set to move onto Iraq on Monday, having shown first he has policies on everything else, is Charles Kennedy. It is a strong card he has held on to well, waiting for a moment when the campaign needs a fresh injection of pace.
His other main message will be 'we are the only party that can win here' to Labour supporters in Lib Dem-Tory marginals.
Labour won't mind that at all. Whoever wins in these seats will not affect its majority at all.
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