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Poll analysis: Tuesday April 19
MORI chairman Sir Robert Worcester analyses the latest opinion poll data.
MORI's latest poll, for the Financial Times today, has Labour on 40 per cent, the Conservatives on 32 per cent and the Liberal Democrats on 21 per cent among the 59 per cent who say they are certain to vote at an immediate election.
This would project, on a uniform swing and recognising that the election isn't on April 18, to a Labour majority of 138 seats over all other parties.
If only old folks (like me) had the vote, it wouldn't be like that. In fact, in our recent poll (April 15 to 18 among 1,005 electors for the FT), looking only at those 55 and over who are absolutely certain to vote, Labour has 35 per cent, the Conservatives 42 per cent and the Liberal Democrats 18 per cent - a Tory lead of seven per cent.
If only those who are 55 and over had the vote, the turnout would be in the mid-70s, not under 60, and the Tories would have the most seats in a closely hung parliament, with Labour likely to lead a minority government supported by the Liberal Democrats and nationalists, with every prospect of a revolution in British politics as the price of Lib Dem support would certainly be, in this totally implausible scenario, a referendum on proportional voting.
The Tories would have a plurality of just two seats over Labour, picking up 126 seats (to give a total of 292), while Labour would lose 122 seats (leaving a total of 290) and the Lib Dems having just 36 seats.
Also, at this level of turnout political power is disproportionately in the hands of older voters.
Over last 16 months the 55-and-overs have consistently been about twice as likely to vote as 18 to 34-year-olds, and according to our sample there are 1.8 times more of the 55-and-overs as there are 18 to 34-year-olds.
Since they are 233 per cent more likely to vote, they are 4.2 times more important to the political strategists. Effectively, each of the older voters will have four times the voting power of a younger person.
No wonder the political parties are each trying to outdo the others in their promises to the grey vote in this election.
Older people on balance dislike Tony Blair (37 per cent like him, 52 per cent don't). And they certainly don't like his party's policies, by 33 per cent to 56 per cent.
However, they don’t much like Michael Howard either. Among those over 55, 37 per cent say they like him and 45 per cent say they don't. But a plurality like Conservative policies, by 43 per cent to 39 per cent.
There are three polls out today. MORI for the Financial Times, NOP for the Independent and Populus in the Times. The results are pretty consistent, and in line with the ICM poll that was published yesterday.
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