In November I reported that I wouldn’t be able to say until March whether David Cameron was in with a shot to topple the government at the next election.
But the jury was still out in January, when 52 per cent of the electorate were ‘don’t knows’, saying it was too soon to say whether they were satisfied with his performance or not. By almost two to one (31 per cent to 17 per cent, a net +14) more people said they were ‘satisfied’ than ‘dissatisfied’.
In February there was no change. Fifty-three per cent said it was too soon to say, and the near two-to-one ratio of ‘satisfied’ to ‘dissatisfied’ stayed about the same: 31 per cent to 16 per cent. Last month I published a graph which showed that with 14 per cent more people initially satisfied with his performance as leader of the opposition than dissatisfied, Cameron was doing better than his three predecessors, William Hague, Iain Duncan Smith and Michael Howard. Further, he matched Tony Blair’s first few ‘honeymoon’ months leading the Labour Party in 1994, then in opposition.
In his second month as leader, in September 1994, Tony Blair had a +14 rating (33 per cent satisfied, 19 per cent dissatisfied, and 48 per cent in various states collectively described as the ‘DKs’ [don’t knows, too early to say/don’t care/undecided]).
Compare that with other party leaders such as Hague, IDS and Howard for the Tories, as well as Michael Foot and Neil Kinnock for Labour, who found that as the ‘don’t knows’ decided, the greater proportion of them gravitated to ‘dissatisfied’.
Six months after his election, Hague went from -3 to -23, a 10 per cent negative swing; IDS from +8 to -9, a negative swing of -8.5; Howard from +1 to -12, a -6.5 per cent swing. In January 1981 Michael Foot went from -13 to -27, a swing of -7; Kinnock’s negative swing was -14.5 per cent. John Smith’s scores also went down, from +7 to -1 over his first six months, a -4 per cent swing.
Tony Blair, on the other hand, started with a +14 in September 1994 and by February 1995 enjoyed a +30, an eight per cent swing. As the DKs fell from 49 per cent to 20 per cent, almost everyone who’d made up their mind believed his performance rated a ‘satisfied’ nod.
David Cameron saw more people than any of his immediate predecessors taking a view, starting with 52 per cent in January. Those with a view split 31 per cent satisfied and 17 per cent dissatisfied.
What has surprised me is that last month, when I thought I’d see movement, still only 31 per cent said they were satisfied, and 16 per cent dissatisfied, with 53 per cent still on the fence.
So I have to say that the jury is still out, and figures on the public’s voting intention back this up.
After a resurgence of support following Cameron’s election as leader, the Conservatives’ May 2005 general election defeat (by 36 to 33 per cent) was more or less reversed in most early polls in Cameron’s first couple of months, including MORI’s January poll finding of a two-point Tory lead. I
n February, however, Labour was back on top with the same lead as in the general election, +3.
Further details: www.mori.com
