In an article for the Parliamentary Monitor magazine, Ofgem chairman John Mogg says that energy supplies will be secure this winter.

This November saw a number of great rituals each of which, in its own way, says something about what it means to be British: Bonfire Night; the great religious festivals of Eid and Diwali; Remembrance Sunday; and the state opening of parliament.

In recent years, a new November ritual has grown up – grave predictions in the press of impending blackouts due to an alleged shortage of gas or electricity generation capacity. This year has proved to be no exception.

No system can ever provide a 100 per cent guarantee of supply at all times. As we saw in autumn 2002, extreme weather can cause serious disruption to the networks, irrespective of generation capacity. Short term problems with the networks can also cause temporary power cuts. But the network companies are under strong incentives to reduce the frequency and duration of such outages and in general their performance compares well with networks elsewhere.

The outlook for winter 2004/05 remains robust. In electricity, there is margin of around 20 per cent of available generation capacity over peak forecast demand while in gas, forecasts show that the market will be able to respond to secure supplies even in a severe "one in 50" winter. Last winter saw just such a response, with prices rising in response to a lower capacity margin, and plant being brought back online to earn the higher returns.

This year, Ofgem published the National Grid Company’s winter forecast earlier than usual in order to allow the market plenty of time to respond. We also approved a number of changes to improve the resilience of the market in the unlikely event of very severe weather.

The decline in UK gas supplies means that we are becoming increasingly dependent on gas imports – just as every other G8 country, with the exception of Canada, is. Already we can see an appropriate market response: major new pipelines and new facilities for storage and for the import of liquefied natural gas (LNG) are being planned and built.

Gas supplies will be tight over the next few years, and this is showing up in increasing prices, reflecting heavier reliance on dearer European gas. Ofgem is working hard with the European Commission to get the right regulatory framework in place for new investment.

In the electricity market, heavy investment will be needed to replace the existing "fleet" of power stations. Here too, Ofgem remains confident that the market framework will provide the right signals to potential investors, as it is already doing in gas.

Whether we are thinking of security of supply or wholesale markets, we must never be complacent. We shall keep the closest eye on developments and make sure that the market has sufficient information and the right mechanisms in place to enable an effective response.

While reports of power cuts and a return to the three day week are wide of the mark, there is, sadly, one further winter ritual which fully justifies the attention it receives: the scandal of excess winter deaths, due in many cases to people being unable to afford to heat their homes adequately.

Despite the scale of the challenge, there has been welcome progress in recent years. Ofgem’s major contribution to tackling fuel poverty is to focus on lower costs, primarily through bringing competition to bear. Since 1996, around three million households have been lifted out of fuel poverty, with about half of that improvement due to lower prices.

However, recent price rises have made it all the more important that government, industry and all agencies involved in the fight against fuel poverty, redouble their efforts.

The key messages for consumers – messages that Ofgem and Energywatch are actively promoting through our Energy Smart campaign – are to switch supplier and to use energy more efficiently.

Households switching for the first time could save over £100 a year, while installing good loft and cavity wall insulation can save up to £130 a year. Further savings are available for customers switching to direct debit payment. There is also a lot of free help and advice available to energy customers, especially vulnerable customers, such as older people, those on low incomes and those with disabilities.

Unfortunately, awareness of these services remains desperately low, with some 75 per cent of vulnerable customers unaware of the special services available to them. I have written to the CEOs of the major energy suppliers calling on them to set out how they will deliver progress in this area and I will be looking for real improvements.

There is no quick fix to the problem of fuel poverty – but working together we can help to reach a situation where the winter ritual of excess deaths no longer forms part of British life.

Sir John Mogg is chairman of Ofgem