Craig Hoy looks at the arrival of proportional representation in Scottish local government and assesses how it will affect the political landscape.

The map of Scottish local government remains deep red – stained in places by controversies such as the Monklands scandal.

While Labour today has control of fewer than 50 per cent of Scots councils, it outpolls the Liberal Democrats, Conservatives and the SNP put together in terms of councillor numbers.

It has an outright majority in 13 councils and is in minority administration in a further four. Six councils are in the hands of independents, and the Lib Dems are in sole control of one while being coalition partners in a further four. The SNP is the dominant player in Angus – forming two additional coalitions. The Tories control no councils north of the border, but play a coalition role in three.

So in a seven-party democracy – if independents, the Greens and the Scottish Socialists are factored in – it is Labour with over 500 of the 1200 council seats that is the dominant force. It may not be a one party state, but it’s a state where one party is in clear contention.

A look around the top table of Scottish politics illustrates how Labour’s local government dominance has drip fed the nation’s body politic – right to the top. Jack McConnell was leader of Stirling Council, education minister Peter Peacock was the top man on Highland Council. Health minister Tom McCabe was the leader of South Lanarkshire Council. Communities minister Mary Mulligan is a former Edinburgh councillor – and tourism minister Frank McAveety has a place in the records as one of the youngest ever council leaders north of the border. Deputy justice minister Hugh Henry is the former leader of West Renfrewshire Council. Those who didn’t cut their teeth in the town halls, such as justice minister Cathy Jamieson, a former social worker, were products of the system. Labour, local government and the public sector in Scotland have long been as one.

Many saw it strange, therefore, that this team opted to back the Liberal Democrats in pushing through proportional representation for the very town halls steeped in Labour traditions – a move described as "a bad day for democracy" by the Labour-dominated Confederation of Scottish Local Authorities.

As many fearful Labour councillors pointed out, proportional representation in general, and STV in particular, is a development that will challenge Labour’s dominance. If it is important to have a strong Labour presence at Westminster, they asked, why is it less so in the town halls of Scotland?

The executive’s move deeply split Labour – pitting Labour MSPs against Labour MPs and councillors. While the spat concluded with a small rebellion when the vote took place earlier this year, the divisions run deeper. Arch-Labour baiter Tommy Sheridan said Labour’s opposition to PR was more about keeping "local councillor pals in a job". Another Labour MP saw it as "madness" driven by the "crazy system" which created the coalition executive in the first instance.

For Jack McConnell, the reasons were two-fold. Following a series of "rotten borough" allegations, a reduction in Labour’s powerbase sent out the message that the party was no longer clinging to its fiefdoms on the back of disproportionate first-past-the-post representation. It was not just about modernising Scottish local government, it was also about cleaning it up. A little bit blood spilt here and there was fine, providing the patient lived. But McConnell, himself an adept fixer, had other motives – he was also giving the Liberal Democrats a prize for which they would pay heavily. Yielding to their demand for PR, a Liberal totem, gave him strong-arm bargaining power. And the Liberals were forced to accept tough anti-social behaviour laws and the possible introduction of GM crops. While some Scots Labour figures believe McConnell is allowing the Liberal Democrats to punch above their weight, others believe he has made the coalition work without yielding on a major issue of public policy.

So a deal was done and the die has been cast. McConnell’s gamble is based on the premise that Labour’s dominance is such that a little generosity to his opponents won’t tip the balance of power in any significant way. Others look to the Scottish parliament – itself the product of PR – where Labour is forced into coalition, as evidence that McConnell’s move will prove a mistake.

The coalition’s PR prescription will operate on larger wards – each electing four councillors in urban areas and three in rural areas. Candidates become councillors when they reach a certain part on the voting threshold – 33 per cent of the votes cast in rural seats and 25 per cent in the four-man wards.

Under the system voters will rank candidates in order of preference – with second and third choice votes handed out if there are no clear winners.

Early analysis suggests Labour’s vote will hold-up, but its dominance will be diminished. If the local authority elections in 2007 replicate past patterns, Labour could expect to lose around half of the 13 councils in which it currently has a majority.

That then means the Labour/Liberal coalition project now in operation at Holyrood could become commonplace in Scottish local government. But no one can yet be sure precisely which parties will benefit. The insurgent Scottish Socialists are on the up and eyeing the prospects of PR with glee. The SNP also hopes the move will work in its favour – with the Scots Conservatives sharing similar thoughts.

The map, therefore, is set to change. And that will reveal new faultlines. With Labour and the SNP remaining at polar extremes, strange bedfellows could soon be sought if Labour is to remain the dominant force in town halls north of the border. Coalitions of Labour and Tory, Tory and Lib Dem, Socialist and SNP and Labour and the Liberals can be expected. Only then will Jack McConnell be able to say whether PR was a price worth paying for his coalition government at Holyrood.