ePolitix.com - Why Sir Ming may not be the man

With the decision of Mark Oaten to stand, we now have a Liberal Democrat leadership election, rather than a Sir Menzies (Ming) Campbell coronation.

That is probably a good thing for the party, given the extent of activist anger over what they see as a policy lurch to the right and the brutal removal of Charles Kennedy.

The likelihood is that party president Simon Hughes will also stand - or if not him another standard bearer of the Lib Dem left.

That would mean the full spectrum of party opinion being reflected in the race, with Oaten on the right, Sir Menzies in the centre and Hughes on the left.

But, confusingly, Lib Dem MPs do not appear to be lining up behind the obvious candidates.

Most of the modernising 'Orange Book' brigade, which originally included Oaten, have come out for Campbell.

Meanwhile supporters of the ex-leader - including Lembit Opik, his inner circle and apparently Kennedy himself - who might have been expected to back fellow centrist Sir Menzies have instead been urging Oaten to stand.

In the case of the latter this is probably more personal than political. Oaten, now home affairs spokesman, used to be part of that kitchen cabinet as Kennedy's parliamentary aide and then party chairman.

More pertinently, it is also the result of anger at the way Kennedy was deposed, with many fingers pointing at Sir Menzies.

In the case of Sir Menzies' supporters, their support can partly be put down to the adage of young cardinals voting for old popes. With the foreign affairs spokesman now 64, a fresh election can be expected in the next parliament, when rising stars such as Nick Clegg and Ed Davey may be more ready.

However that can hardly be said of Vince Cable, or to a lesser extent David Laws, the party's leading economic liberals, hard-headed calculators and Kennedy-assassins-in-chief, neither of whom is now likely to lead the party.

While closer to Oaten ideologically, they were probably making a more political decision in opting for Sir Menzies as their man, seeing him as the most competent, prime ministerial and vote winning Lib Dem MP.

They may also know more about his views on domestic politics than the rest of us and be confident that he will take the party in their more market friendly direction.

Having spoken on foreign affairs for so long, Sir Menzies remains something of a mystery in Westminster when it comes to his stance on other matters - he will now have to address that issue.

But the Orange Bookers should perhaps be more alarmed by the indications he has given.

"I don't have any difficulty with a 50 per cent tax rate and I see no reason why those earning over £100,000 should not make a greater contribution," he told the Telegraph in September, just as Cable was seeking to ditch the policy as uncompetitive.

Questioned on the prospect of a Lib Dem-Tory coalition, an idea floated by Cable, he also told a fringe meeting at the most recent party conference that his enemies were conservatives.

And he told this website at the time of publication of the Orange Book that "the fact that they have set out a stall will not mean that what they say is automatically accepted".

More broadly, the modernisers may in seeking to see off second favourite Hughes, be blinding themselves to some of the weaknesses of Sir Menzies.

He may be experienced, in contrast to David Cameron's "callow youth", but he is also at an age that Michael Howard said was too old to be prime minister - not that this is a realistic prospect of course, but it is something the Lib Dems have to claim nonetheless.

Equally, they would be electing an ageing white male Scot to go up against Gordon Brown. Great news for Labour, whose leader at the next election will no longer look so old, even better for the Tories who with their attractive English chief could scoop up votes in the South East.

There is also the added element of his poshness. Sir Menzies is, by definition, a knight of the realm and with an appropriately grand manner to boot. Of course David Cameron is an Old Etonian, but he also has a common touch.

And what of Sir Menzies' bid to be speaker of the Commons in 2000? That could be interpreted as a desire not to lead the country, but hold a great office that befits his status.

Of course he has many strengths: Confidence, gravitas and the ability to command the Commons among them. And there is no obvious flawless alternative available.

But Lib Dems should not expect Sir Menzies to be the answer to all their prayers. Their problems go a lot deeper than that. Not least this morning's opinion poll showing 16 per cent support.

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