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Blair's defining year
Daniel Forman
Tony Blair has returned from holiday at the start of what could be the defining year of his premiership.
The prime minister arrived back in the country on Tuesday following a week's break in the luxury resort of Sharm el Sheikh in Egypt.
As he touched down a campaign was already underway among loyalists to go into 2006 with a sense of momentum in the face of a series of important challenges.
Work and pensions secretary John Hutton was writing to MPs to highlight the link between incapacity benefit and poverty as he sought to prepare the ground for his green paper on welfare reform.
And defence secretary John Reid was writing in the Evening Standard on the dangers of vacating the centre ground of British politics at exactly the time when the Conservatives are trying to recapture it.
The moves marked a continuation of efforts that begun before and continued during Blair's stay in the Middle East.
His pre-Christmas press conference and new year's message both stressed the need to take tough decisions in the next 12 months, escalating both the pace and nature of reform.
The long list of issues now sitting in the prime minister's in-tray includes further reform of the NHS, where he has already been forced to back down over plans to effectively privatise primary care services, his respect agenda unveiled amid much fanfare following the general election and the conclusion of parliamentary battles on the Terrorism Bill and the smoking ban, as well as incapacity benefit reform.
Looking further ahead Blair has big decisions to take on nuclear power, trident missiles, road pricing and pensions on top of local elections to fight.
He will also want to consolidate his G8 and EU presidency agendas by pressing international colleagues to ensure commitments made on climate change, trade, aid, debt relief and adapting to globalisation are met.
And bringing the budget, the escalating costs of hosting the London Olympics and operations in Iraq under control will additionally be exercising his mind. All will form a key part of his legacy whenever he does decide to leave, or is forced from, Number 10.
However it is the vexed issue of education that looms above all of these concerns at the moment and provides the most uncertainty over his future.
Frantic behind the scenes efforts to find a compromise between Blair and his backbenchers over the plans contained with the recent white paper for federated and autonomous trust schools are ongoing, but it is unclear whether either would be willing to accept any retreat.
Such is the seismic importance both sides attach to secondary education, the dispute does have the potential to see Blair depart Downing Street sooner rather than later.
The cleverly laid trap by David Cameron's Conservatives, offering to support the plans as long as they remain radical, provides little comfort. While it allows Blair to pass the proposals through parliament, it would also most likely lead him to split the Labour Party.
Therefore, even setting aside the inevitable unforeseen challenges, the prime minister will know that this year will be more than averagely tough.
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Published: Wed, 4 Jan 2006 00:01:00 GMT+00
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