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Editor's factfile: Thursday April 21
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| Craig Hoy - Charting the campaign course |
Are any senior MPs likely to lose their seats at the coming general election?
Several senior MPs and some ministers are vulnerable and tactical voting could increase their chances of defeat.
Top of the list is Tory leader Michael Howard, who is facing a Liberal Democrat challenge in his Folkestone and Hythe constituency.
While the Lib Dems have talked up their prospects, on the ground the party is less optimistic of over-turning Howard’s 6,000 majority.
With a 13 per cent lead, the Conservative leader has deftly seen off previous Lib Dem challenges - but could be vulnerable if the Lib Dems persuade Labour's voters to switch.
A party leader looking more vulnerable is David Trimble, who has seen his personal political fortunes fall as those of his party have collapsed over recent years.
In the face of a marked increase in support for the DUP, Trimble's 2,058 majority is soft and he could fall victim if the hardliners mount an aggressive campaign.
While he has a strong personal following, proven when his vote held up in the 2003 assembly election, the DUP hopes Trimble's luck will run out on May 5.
Amongst ministerial ranks there are a few nervous faces as well.
Jack Straw is facing a backlash amongst Muslim voters in his Blackburn constituency. Straw enjoys a majority of close to 10,000 in a seat once occupied by Barbara Castle.
But with the Conservatives having selected Muslim Imtiaz Ameen, and former British ambassador Craig Murray running against him, the foreign secretary can expect a reduced majority.
Despite hopes of a Conservative revival, several top Tories could see their careers brought to an abrupt end if the political arithmetic runs against them.
Oliver Letwin (Dorset West), Theresa May (Maidenhead) and David Davis (Haltemprice and Howden) all feature on the Lib Dems' sinisterly-termed decapitation list.
But this is all a far cry away from 1997 when Labour's landslide ripped through John Major's Cabinet.
Foreign secretary Malcolm Rifkind, defence secretary Michael Portillo, trade secretary Ian Lang, Scotland secretary Michael Forsyth, chief secretary to the Treasury William Waldegrave, Commons leader Tony Newton and chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster Roger Freeman were all removed from the Commons.
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