Two opinion polls have suggested that the result on May 5 is likely to be closer than anticipated.

Wednesday's Guardian focuses on a private Labour survey which shows that the party is just two per cent ahead or less in up to 100 marginal constituencies.

The internal report delivered to campaign chief Alan Milburn suggests that the number certain to vote is still only about 56 per cent overall - three per cent down on 2001.

"None of the polls are showing the steady rise in the definite-to-vote [group] as there was four years ago," the report warned.

"Labour no longer has the wind in its sails as it did in 1997. No government that has been in power for eight years does."

Milburn admitted: "It is the number of definite-to-votes who will make or break this election.

"Our research is showing that, in particular, women feel the election coverage is not focusing on the issues that concern them most."

MORI

Meanwhile, a MORI survey for the FT has Labour's lead at two points among those certain to vote.

The poll has Labour at 36 per cent, the Conservatives at 34 per cent and the Liberal Democrats at 23 per cent. 

But when people were asked who they support, Labour's share of the vote rises to 40 per cent, 10 points ahead of the Tories.

According to MORI, 80 per cent of Conservative supporters are now certain to vote, compared with 71 per cent a week ago.

Labour's comparable figure is 64 per cent, against 66 per cent last week.