Constituency Profile: Sherwood

ePolitix.com profiles the key constituencies in the run-up to the 2005 general election.

The Conservatives would require a large 10.5 per cent swing to snatch this central east Midlands seat, exactly the kind of result which, if repeated nationally, would see Michael Howard in 10 Downing Street.

And if there were any fairly safe Labour-held constituency where the Tories could pull it off, this would be it.

Sherwood has had a curmudgeonly political relationship with the Labour Party, despite its coal mining heritage.

The miners at Blidworth, Bilsthorpe, Clipstone, Ollerton and Thoresby largely rejected Scargill's strike call in the 1980s, bitterly dividing the local labour movement.

In 1983, the newly-formed constituency delivered a stunning blow to Foot's Labour Party by electing the Conservative Andrew Stewart.

Now most of the mines are gone, save for Thoresby which was recently the recipient of a £2.1m grant.

Regeneration initiatives are now in full swing, including the expansion of Hucknall College and the re-opening of the Robin Hood Railway Line.

But despite these and other projects, unemployment remains stubbornly above national averages.

Labour's Paddy Tipping, a former social worker, has held this seat since 1992. In 1997 his majority swelled to over 16,000 votes but the 2001 poll saw it nearly scythed in half.

This time around, Conservative candidate Bruce Laughton will be hoping he can repeat this trend.

'Taxed out of their minds'

He will be counting on a strong Tory presence in the outlying rural farming villages to help him dent Tipping's majority, but says he is getting an "excellent response" even in Labour's heartlands.

Speaking to ePolitix.com on the campaign trail in Ollerton, Laughton said the Tories were fighting a low-tax campaign and it was proving popular.

"Even here, in Labour's so-called heartlands, people are listening to Tory policies," he said.

"It's actually working class people who are least able to afford Labour’s tax increases. They are hard-working, law-abiding individuals who are being taxed out of their minds.

"Labour has abandoned these areas in its quest to attract support from middle England. Now we are seeing a complete tide of change here since 2001."

He also pointed to another influence on the local Conservative campaign: "There is no doubt the Blair factor is a major thing here. People simply don't trust him.

"We were getting this back from the doorsteps in September. There is a real trust issue here, and we're urging voters to send Blair a message from Sherwood."

'Positive reaction'

But Labour candidate Paddy Tipping also believes his party is getting a good reaction on Sherwood's doorsteps.

"We've been able to get Labour's message across," he said. 

"At the end of the day people believe that a strong economy allows record investment in schools and hospitals. 

"The Tories' tax and spend policies just don't add up. Voters know it's a straight choice – investment for the future with Labour or back to the Tory cuts with Michael Howard.

"When it comes to trust we're winning hands down – so we're confident, but not complacent."

He said that a localised campaign and years of constituency work had paid off.

"Incumbency will be a factor in this election. We've continued to work hard on local issues – housing development and quarrying on greenfield sites and Green Belt sites."

Two-horse race

Sherwood is primarily a straight two-party contest, and the only threat the Lib Dems can realistically mount here is to damage either of the two main parties through tactical voting.

With a 12 per cent share of the vote at the last election, local candidate Peter Harris is unlikely to be Sherwood's next MP.

A low-profile UKIP candidacy may attract stray votes from the right, but the majority of Sherwood’s voters will almost certainly plump for one of the two largest national parties.

The result in this mixed and sometimes volatile constituency may therefore hold the key to whether local Tory Laughton and his national leader can reach Labour's Tipping point.