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Low key conference sets scene for election campaign
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The annual Labour conference has come to an end with a whimper, rather than a bang.

A much hyped showdown vote on Iraq failed to materialise, with the major unions coming onside at the 11th hour.

By common consent the week in Brighton has been muted compared to previous affairs.

The ongoing hostage crisis in Iraq has prevented overt displays of triumphalism from the platform.

The shadow of the conflict has hung over proceedings, making it difficult for speakers to sound aggressive or for ministers to be seen enjoying themselves too much at fringe events and parties, with the press pack waiting to draw simple but stark comparisons with the plight of Briton Ken Bigley.

And the imminence of the general election campaign, expected in the spring of next year, has largely prompted unity on the domestic agenda despite genuine policy difference that do exist.

The main dividing lines are not fundamental of philosophical but rather concerns over how to go forward with reforms towards common aims.

In one corner is the Blairite Alan Milburn, newly appointed as chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster and general election chief.

Along with allies such as health secretary John Reid and education minister David Miliband, he has been making the case for greater choice in education and health services, but arguing that the whole Cabinet and party can and does support the process of "empowering" the public.

The other cause of the pro-choice brigade has been emphasising within the election manifesto the need to develop a forward-looking programme of policies, rather than dwelling on past achievements.

But they have done so in a way that stresses unity and dismisses what Milburn describes as the "soap opera" of personality politics.

On the other side of the divide are the chancellor and his Brownite outriders such as the former Treasury adviser and new parliamentary candidate Ed Balls, who has also been busy on the conference fringe.

Their argument is that the economy - and Labour's success in this area - remains the bedrock of the government's strength and best chance of retaining voters' trust.

Fears over the impact of introducing markets into health and education also ally the Gordon Brown camp with the big trade unions whose cash and voting power remain crucial to the party and conference.

Off the record and away from the conference floor, the talk was also of the other driver of the split - the question of who will replace Tony Blair as party leader.

For all that he downplays the idea, Milburn has emerged as a genuine challenger to Brown and for as long as that remains the case tensions at the top table of government will run high.

When the succession takes place will, to a large degree, depend on how well the conference, the party's and its policies play with the public in the next seven months.

Five-year plans for the public services have been shown off to the country and Tony Blair's leadership has emerged from another tricky week intact if not untarnished.

He may never recover the heights of his 1990s popularity, but the prime minister's solid performance and near-apology over Iraq, have kept Labour on course for an expected third election win.

But the number of voters he has been able to reconnect with will determine the scale of victory and the likely length of his remaining premiership.

Published: Thu, 30 Sep 2004 15:45:00 GMT+01
Author: Daniel Forman

The imminence of the general election campaign, expected in the spring of next year, has largely prompted unity on the domestic agenda despite genuine policy difference that do exist