Liberal Democrat party members have left their Bournemouth conference confident of a strong showing at the next general election.

The relatively low key conference was marked by, what one speaker described as, the need for "discipline in the pre-election period".

What sparks there have been were prompted by the publication of the Orange Book, authored by a group of the party's MPs, setting out a more right-wing agenda.

But the mood in the conference hall suggested those MPs are not likely to convince the rest of the party to back their plans any time soon.

An amendment to party policy blocking any move to a health system funded through social insurance, one idea set out in the book, was described as a "no brainer" by one delegate.

Challenging Labour

By-election successes in Brent East and Leicester South have given the party renewed confidence it can take on Labour.

The foundation for that hope has been the party's consistent opposition to the war in Iraq.

Charles Kennedy believes the policy has, beyond its immediate impact, succeeded in convincing the public to view the Lib Dems as a party of principle.

Officials are keen to insist they are not a "one trick party", and that they have a range of policies beyond their position on the war.

But, attuned as ever to how to capitalise on its assets, the Lib Dems have been making the most of the issue at this conference.

Kennedy was attacking the prime minister's handling of the war as the conference got underway on Sunday, while the issue also generated keynote speeches on Monday and Tuesday.

And in his concluding address on Thursday it again formed a major part of Kennedy's attack on Tony Blair.

The party's attempts to woo disillusioned Labour voters are not, however, based solely on its opposition to the war.

Policies such as a new top rate of tax of 50 per cent on incomes over £100,000 and more help for pensioners might look more at home in a traditional Labour manifesto.

Tory targets

But consciously echoing the "triangulation" strategy that helped former US president Bill Clinton's re-election campaign, the Lib Dems are not just targeting Labour voters.

In a tricky balancing act, Kennedy and his troops also need to attract the votes of Conservative supporters.

Many of the party's top target seats are currently held by the Tories, so if more seats are to be won voters who might normally back Michael Howard will also need convincing that the Lib Dems have something to offer.

Some polices, such as pledging to scrap university tuition fees, are designed to appeal to middle class voters.

Yet the convinced pro-Europeanism and the softer line on issues such as asylum and immigration could negate that - as could the pledge to increase tax on high earners.

While the Conservatives remain the official opposition in parliament, the Lib Dems believe Tory support is now confined to so few areas of the country they cannot win another general election.

So with predictions that the Conservatives will never again form a majority government in Westminster, the Lib Dems have decided it is now inevitable that they will take power when voters have had enough of Labour.

High hopes

Its a bold presumption to make for a party that has been so far from the reins of national power for so long.

Until 2001, most observers would have dismissed out of hand Lib Dem hopes of replacing the Conservatives - and many still do.

But last time around Kennedy's troops put in an unexpectedly strong showing.

While many had expected their 1997 tally of 46 MPs to be the party's high water mark, an increased total of 52 was returned to Westminster in 2001.

So this time commentators are more reluctant to write off the Lib Dems.

As the next election approaches there is perhaps a larger degree of uncertainty about the outcome than at any time in recent history.

Labour's three figure majorities in 1997 and 2001 mean it would now take a huge swing to push the party out of power.

But low turnout at the last election, and fears that it could sink even lower next time, make it hard to be sure how the voting in individual constituencies will add up.

There is also a suggestion that the Iraq war could prompt a volatile electorate to become even more unpredictable.

So the Lib Dems now expect that these factors will play into their hands.

Raising the bar

In politics the standard tactic is to downplay expectations so that a poor result can be described as "expected" while a reasonable outcome becomes a "stunning success".

The Lib Dems, however, have taken a risk in adopting the reverse strategy.

In part this is designed to become a self-fulfilling strategy, convincing the public that a vote for them will not be wasted.

But at this conference the party has raised the bar for the election performance that will be expected of it.