An NOP poll for the Express gives Labour a 20 point lead over the Conservatives.

The poll puts Labour at 51 per cent, the Tories at 31 per cent and the Liberal Democrats at 13 per cent. This represents an improvement for Labour on its 1997 election showing and would see it increase its presence in Parliament from 419 seats to 453 - a majority of 250. The Tories would be left with just 145 seats, 20 down on their 1997 result. The Lib Dems would lose 13 MPs to finish on 33.

The PM, whilst not receiving a ringing endorsement from would-be voters, just 22 per cent of whom rated Labour's record as good, was still comfortably ahead of his opposition amongst all age groups and classes, and both genders.

Tony Blair was rated as a strong leader by 37 per cent of voters, as opposed to 13 per cent who said the same for William Hague and 17 per cent for Charles Kennedy.

The Express concludes that Hague has a long way to go just to get Labour's majority down below its 1997 level and virtually no chance of achieving the kind of performance that would deter a post-election leadership challenge.