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The morning after
Richard Parsons
Tony Blair has woken up to plenty of bad headlines during his time in Number 10, but there probably hasn't been a day like today.
With the exception of the Sun press coverage is unremittingly negative, with the general theme being that this is "the beginning of the end" for a leader who has already said he will step down before the next election.
The prime minister had insisted that the case for 90 day detention of terrorism suspects should be treated on its merits rather than being seen as a vote of confidence in his leadership.
But the flaw in that argument is obvious - if he can't convince parliament to back him on a matter of national security, just how effective is his leadership?
Much of the analysis in Thursday's papers looked beyond the terrorism issue to assess the likely impact on the government's wider public sector reform agenda.
There are now doubts over whether reforms to incapacity benefit, the education system or the way NHS services are commissioned will command enough support to make them viable.
The key, as ever, is the mood among Labour MPs - though if David Cameron becomes Conservative leader and puts, as he has pledged to do, the interests of the country before party politics then he might just find himself rescuing the prime minister from more defeats.
Blair should be paying attention to the Tories. The party has provided plenty of examples over recent years of what can happen to a leader who lacks support among Commons colleagues.
But perhaps it should also be noted that the 90 day detention vote also provides an indication of how far the Labour Party has travelled under Blair.
That 289 (plus another two tellers) of 354 MPs - 82 per cent - felt they should vote for what was, according to most observers, still a major erosion of civil liberties despite the government's last-minute concessions could be taken as proof that the vast majority of the party is now content to occupy the centre ground or even position themselves to the right of the Conservatives.
Unfortunately for the prime minister, however, the support of 82 per cent of your backbenchers is not enough when you have a majority of just 66.
Meeting on Thursday morning, members of the Cabinet agreed on the old fall back that they just need to "explain their policies" better.
That, however, will not be enough for the hard core of Labour rebels and the wider group of centre-left MPs who have concerns about introducing "contestability" (choice) and "diversity" (for which read the private sector) into public services.
Their argument is not that they haven't understood the policies, it is that they think they are plain wrong.
Blair will, no doubt, continue warning his party that without his modernisation agenda the middle classes will opt out of public services, spelling the beginning of the end not so much for his leadership but for the welfare state as it currently exists.
But continuous speculation about his authority could easily become self-fulfilling - a leader who has to deal constantly with questions about his credibility soon loses whatever credibility he has left.
David Blunkett might recognise that problem.
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Published: Thu, 10 Nov 2005 13:45:23 GMT+00
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