HUGE HOUSEHOLD PROJECTIONS ARE A MASSIVE ENVIRONMENTAL CHALLENGE

14 March 2006

Today’s Government forecasts of the growth in numbers of households over the next two decades represent a massive environmental challenge, countryside campaigners CPRE [1] warn today.

If these projections [2] were translated into new homes built, that would represent more than 16 square miles of countryside disappearing under new housing estates each year. [3]

And with them would come a huge increase in climate changing greenhouse gas emissions, in road traffic and pollution and in consumption of finite natural resources such as water and minerals. [4]

CPRE’s Policy Director Neil Sinden said today: ‘We do need more homes to cope with a growing population.

‘But we cannot use these projections as instructions for the number of new homes that have to be built in England over the next 20 years. [5] We must take into account the environmental impacts of housebuilding, and think about this issue in the same way as we think about the growth in aviation and road traffic.

‘In one of the world’s most built-up, densely-populated developed nations, environmental protection must be part of the equation.’

CPRE points out that the projections are based on a continuation of past trends which influence household formation. Small changes in economic and social factors can make a large difference. Population growth is one critical factor, but so is the trend towards ever smaller average household sizes as people make choices – or find themselves compelled – to spend more and more of their lives living alone.

‘As a nation, we might want to start asking questions about whether the fall in average household sizes is socially as well as environmentally sustainable,’ said Neil Sinden.

The planning system has a critical role to play in securing sustainable development. As we plan the number and location of new homes over the next 20 years, CPRE’s top priorities will be:

• Focussing as much development as possible on derelict or under-used urban sites, thereby encouraging regeneration and protecting the countryside.
• Resisting land-wasting low housing densities for new homes, instead favouring medium densities at which sufficient family homes with gardens can be built, along with the smaller homes required by the rapidly growing number of one person households.
• Trying to ensure new housing contributes to more even growth across England’s regions, making better use of derelict sites and buildings in the northern regions, rather than focussing ever more new housing on the ‘hot house’ areas of the South and East.
• Questioning the figures, calling for them to be tested and updated, and demanding that priority is given to meeting the needs of those who suffer the worst housing problems. This means building more subsidised housing for rent or part-ownership by people on lower incomes.
• Making better use of the existing housing stock, reducing the number of empty and under-occupied homes, and converting other types of buildings into homes where appropriate.

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NOTES FOR EDITORS

1. CPRE, the Campaign to Protect Rural England, is a charity which promotes the beauty, tranquillity and diversity of rural England. We advocate positive solutions for the long-term future of the countryside. Founded in 1926, we have 60,000 supporters and a branch in every county. President: Sir Max Hastings. Patron: Her Majesty The Queen.

2. See ODPM Statistical Release 2006/0042 published 14 March 2006.

3. This estimate assumes 40 per cent of 209,000 new homes a year are built on greenfield sites (the Government’s target is for 60 per cent of new homes to be built on previously developed ‘brownfield’ sites) and that these homes are built at an overall density of 20 dwellings per hectare. This density figure assumes that homes continue to be built at today’s density levels, but takes into account the infrastructure that goes with large numbers of new homes – roads, schools, green spaces, health centres etc.

4. According to Government estimates, the building of the average new home is responsible for emissions of greenhouse gases equivalent to 35 tonnes of carbon dioxide, production of 11.25 tonnes of solid waste and consumption of 60 tonnes of mineral aggregates. Once built and occupied, the average house will be responsible for 1.25 tonnes of solid wastes and 4.05 tonnes of carbon dioxide a year. It will also consume 180 tonnes of water and produce a roughly equivalent quantity of sewage effluent. These figures are based on a typical 90 square metre new home meeting current Building Regulations and occupied by three people.

5. Launching previous household projections, Deputy Prime Minister John Prescott said: 'The projections are not forecasts, estimates or predictions. They are based entirely on what might be expected to occur if previous trends continue and are heavily dependent on the assumptions involved. Such trends can and do change...' The Rt. Hon. John Prescott MP on the 1999 household projections, Hansard, 29 March 1999, column 471.

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