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Sam Macrory surveys the Scottish political scene and explores how the next general election could bring the Union to breaking point.
All polls suggest that the result of the 2010 general election should be the stuff that the Conservative leader's dreams are made of, but it may also create a scenario that he is desperate to avoid: an apocalyptic consequence for the future of the United Kingdom.
David Cameron's nightmare scenario goes something like this… The Conservatives win the general election, but are returned to Westminster with just a couple of Scottish seats. The numbers are a gift to the SNP, and Alex Salmond, the party's leader, seizes the opportunity to claim that the Tories lack the authority to govern Scotland. Before long Conservative budgetary cuts begin to bite – with the pain felt sharply in Scotland due to its disproportionately high number of public sector workers. Disaffection with the ruling classes at Westminster rises, and the SNP is returned to power – with no need for a coalition partner – after the 2011 Holyrood election. Calls for a referendum can no longer be ignored, with a 'yes' vote leading irreversibly to the break-up of the Union. David Cameron enters the history books as the last-ever prime minister of the United Kingdom.
Behind the scenes, however, the future of Scotland – and the longevity of the Union – could be determined, says John Curtice, Professor of Politics at Strathclyde University, by "a very complicated interplay between what happens at Westminster and at Holyrood – a Conservative government would have implications, but things are not necessarily as simple as some people might suggest".
The nuclear vision is partly based on unavoidable mathematics. In Scotland, the SNP is on the rise, at least compared to where it was in 2005, while Labour, just as it is south of the border, plummets in popularity. The Conservatives have crept from just below 16 per cent in the polls four years ago to an average of 21 per cent this year. It is, the party points out, a 25 per cent increase in support, but the figure is still half of what it polls at a national level. The Lib Dems, meanwhile, continue to stagnate in the background, a position where they have languished since the 2007 Scottish election brought closure to the Lib/Lab ruling coalition.
A first point to consider is that the gathering of SNP support is not necessarily due to a sudden conversion to the independence cause. Just as the Tories are the beneficiaries of Labour's unpopularity south of the border, the SNP is reaping the rewards to the north. If Cameron can convince the protesting voters to turn to his party – and, much like in England, this will be virtually a solo decontamination operation – then he will have a chance of surprising success in Scotland.
If Salmond were to pick up Labour's lost votes, then he will be tempted to marginalise the Tory MPs left in Scotland. But he will be mindful of the fact that he was only able to take office in May 2007 because the Tories propped him up, a pact revealed earlier this year when Scottish Tory leader Annabel Goldie – in exchange for a number of policy concessions such as business rate cuts – rescued his budget when it went into meltdown. The polls may not give Goldie credit, but to some extent the Tories can claim to be kingmakers in Scotland. While Salmond will want to be seen to be tough-talking with the UK government, he has his own dues to pay.
At the recent SNP conference, much talk was made of exacting leverage from the Westminster government for Scotland's benefit. But the Braveheart rhetoric had gone, perhaps in deference to the opinion polls which show that Salmond would not win a referendum. Now there is talk of maintaining a shared currency, a shared Queen, and shared institutions such as the Royal Mail. Salmond, it seems, wants to do business.
Speaking to The House Magazine, Angus Robertson, the party's spokesman at Westminster, says: "Whether it's a Tory or Labour government after the next general election, both will push identical agendas of nuclear weapons on the Clyde and savage cuts to the Scottish budget.
"SNP progress will be dictated by the situation at Westminster rather than which man is in power. Our preference is for a hung Parliament, where a Scottish block of 20 MPs could hold power and achieve tangible results for the people of Scotland."
The hung Parliament preference has seen Labour launch a 'Vote SNP, Get Tory campaign, while David Mundell, the shadow Scotland secretary, has accused Salmond of living in "cloud cuckoo land". Nevertheless, an olive branch of sorts has been offered.
How the Tories will deal with the SNP in Scotland is also becoming clearer. The party is painfully aware that the shadow of Margaret Thatcher, and in particular the effect of the poll tax, still hangs heavily over Scotland. While Central Office talks of the "encouraging" European Parliament results and the possible seizure of seats currently held by the chancellor Alistair Darling and Scotland secretary Jim Murphy – either of which would represent a genuine breakthrough for Cameron – the party openly accepts that it won't have a majority in Scotland, and is making preparations accordingly. Cameron has proposed regular meetings with his SNP counterpart, a clear statement of intent to deliver on the party's promise to "cultivate mutual respect with both the devolved government and the Scottish Parliament". The mood music has quite clearly been switched to easy listening.
This approach will be shaped by how the Conservatives deal with the Calman Commission, the independent review which has proposed devolving fiscal powers to the Scottish government. The Tories say they are sympathetic to the commission's proposals, with the shadow cabinet set to discuss them in detail – but the report is said to have caused divisions throughout the party. Cameron may struggle to convince his backbenchers of the logic behind devolving fiscal powers in the midst of a recession, but if he can deliver on Calman, then the SNP may be sated. Accepting Calman may appease English Tories who want to ditch the contentious Barnett formula for funding the devolved nations.
The Tory reaction to Calman is also being closely monitored by the Scottish Liberal Democrats, with Tavish Scott's party the most vocal supporters of the commission. Should the Tories go cold on Calman, then the Lib Dems may look for other partners. This Friday, at a special conference, the Scottish Lib Dems will hold an internal debate over their position on a referendum on Scottish independence. Scott remains opposed and could yet resign as leader should his membership choose to rebel and, as a result, inch closer to the SNP.
If Cameron drops Calman, and the Lib Dems back a referendum, then the SNP – who abstained from the Commission due to its refusal to look at independence – could yet switch partners and pursue a "Calman is the best we have" strategy. At a stroke, Tory leverage at Holyrood would be lost; Cameron and Goldie are not the only game in town.
With the three-way saga unfolding, it is easy to forget that there is another player in the Scottish scenario. It is Labour that has most at stake as the calls for independence grow, with 39 Labour MPs currently holding Scottish constituencies. Independence would see the balance of power at Westminster slip decisively in the Tories' favour. Should it lose the general election, Labour will seek to recast the party as the defender of Scotland in defiance of an SNP now in hock to Thatcher's Tories.
Perhaps, perversely, Labour has the most to gain, but with a year between the general election and the Holyrood poll, the viability of a possible Tory-SNP working alliance will have the chance to test itself under trying circumstances.
Scotland is poised for change, but the post-election scenario that is the SNP's dream and Cameron's Scottish nightmare remains far from inevitable.
Dods Parliamentary Communications Ltd