Vince Cable - Lib Dem Treasury spokesman

Vince Cable speaks to the House Magazine about his economic forecast for the year ahead.

His accurate appraisals of the economy have made him a media favourite, and at the end of a year that saw him crowned House Magazine Opposition Politician of 2008, Vince Cable tells Sam Macrory his economic forecast for the year ahead – and says he has better jokes than 'Mr Bean'.

Oracle, soothsayer, guru. Vince Cable's CV has acquired a string of rather grand-sounding job titles in the last year, and though I've never met one before, I doubt there could be an unlikelier-looking soothsaying oracular guru than the Liberal Democrat economic spokesman.

Emerging from his Westminster office through a canyon among the piles of paper, his muttered greetings and diffident manner hint at shyness. Yet for well over a year, anyone hoping to understand – or predict – the world's financial fortunes falls silent when Cable speaks. He predicted the bust years ago, and called for the nationalisation of the collapsing banks as all others dithered.

His number is first on the speed-dial of all broadcasting studios and, helped by some smart moves as a TV dancer and a successful stint as his party's stand-in leader – captured by that now familiar jibe in comparing the prime minister to Mr Bean – he can lay claim to be the nation's favourite politician. It has been an extraordinary year for him yet, when submerged into the mudbath of party politics, his sharp analysis has not been rewarded with a Lib Dem poll boost.

Repeatedly brow-furrowing poll figures are, Cable admits, "a source of frustration – I think we deserve to do better". He makes his task sound almost thankless. Any time he hits a nerve, the Tories can cherry-pick his policies or the prime minister can implement them. "It's a mixture of satisfaction that we seem to be ahead of the curve, but frustration that other people pile in and seem to take the credit for it. We've had this several times in the last year or so," Cable reflects, wistfully.

There is another problem being a successful economic oracle; you have to predict the worst. This is not the time for optimism either. "I saw half of it, but not the other half," Cable explains. "I was always conscious that there was a serious British problem caused by household debt and the extraordinary bubble in the housing market. What I hadn't fully anticipated and understood was the extent to which the whole international banking system was deeply contaminated, and that the whole system would effectively seize up."

Having predicted half of the downturn, can he suggest how long it will last? Doom-mongering, it seems, is easier than gloom-lifting. He insists it would be "foolish" to predict anything, any more.

"It certainly is possible to describe a scenario in which there is recovery within a reasonable time: house prices bottom-out, people start buying, business confidence starts to return. You could tell that story. But equally it is possible to tell a much bleaker story of a very painful, deep and prolonged downturn. The fact is that there is now a recession. You have a banking system that doesn't function and isn't going to return to normality any time soon. There are other normal mechanisms of credit that are broken down in the business market and the housing market. Those things will take a lot longer to recover."

As for the nation's job prospects in 2009, the doctor's domestic diagnosis is grim. "I certainly get a sense that the figures will increase alarmingly in the new year, and a lot of people are just not going to be able to cope. Unemployment will create other problems in terms of people's debt service and their ability to maintain their home purchases. There will be a lot of hardship, unfortunately."

High unemployment has been an uncharted political battleground for over a decade. With little experience to call on, opposition parties will need to find the right tone to turn job losses into a vote-winner, and here Cable will require the Conservatives to stumble. He believes that they have already misunderstood the mood. "The Conservatives have been very aggressive about the economy, and it may be that that has backfired because people can clearly see that it is more complex than that. I think Gordon Brown shouldn't get away with denying the fact that he had several years' warning of the impending difficulties in the British economy, but at the same time clearly he gets some credit for having responded quickly and decisively to the banking problem."

It wasn't so long ago that Cable's 'Mr Bean' jibe left Brown visibly furious, but now the man once known as Stalin has re-emerged as Superman. Is he surprised at the turnaround in the prime minister's fortunes? "If you go back in the chronology of the last year-and-a-half where Gordon Brown went from hero to zero and back to hero again, it's all a bit unpredictable." But pay attention; here comes another Cable prediction. "I think the common sense assumption must be that as recession bites and people get angry, they will be less enthusiastic about the government than they were before. That’s simple political common sense. The question will be whether people turn to us, the Liberal Democrats, because they feel we have shown good judgment, or they turn to the Tories because they are currently the main opposition party. That will be an interesting question."

As the economic downturn begins to bite, it's hard to imagine the disgruntled voter weighing up the Conservative and Lib Dem economic alternatives and deciding on merit, as Cable would hope. In the end, the most likely alternative government will reap the rewards of economic hardship. Cable remains positive, insisting he "would hope and expect" credit if his ideas appear under the banner of other parties, but accepts that if he "looks in a detached way and not with narrow self-interest, then it's surely healthy that we're learning from each others' ideas".

Has the last year not fuelled a passion to pull the levers of power rather than show others how they work best? "I'm not motivated by that and I'm not thinking in those terms," he says. Pressed on whether the role of chancellor is an ambition, he replies: "I think it's rather unlikely, though anything is possible in a rapidly changing world. I'm certainly up for playing a role of responsibility, but that's not what's driving me."

It might be a sacrilegious suggestion, but Cable has also had a lucky year. He didn't outstay his welcome as temporary leader, and it is far from certain that this reserved character – and don't forget the withering ageist attacks on Sir Menzies Campbell, who is just a year older than Cable – could have withstood the twists and turns of party leadership over the long term.

And perhaps if it wasn't for that joke, his stock would have remained high rather than stratospheric.

"It did rather surprise me, but I guess it simply caught the mood of the time. People were trying to find some visual image that captured Gordon Brown's very rapid descent from being an authoritarian figure to somebody who was bumbling and hapless and didn't seem to know what to do next. I've had far better jokes than that, that have disappeared without trace."

Then the eyes narrow slightly, and I'm left with a glimpse of why, behind the dance moves, the jokes and the avuncular manner, Cable is enjoying the most successful time of his political career. "I have a job to do, and he [Brown] has a job to do. You shouldn't let personal feelings creep in the way."

To oracle, soothsayer and guru, add focused politician, and one who thinks his party deserves to do better. While the prime minister may have shed his Mr Bean suit for now, only a fool would stop listening to Vince Cable just yet.