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By Lord Risby - 21st November 2011
Lord Risby says that the relationship between Syria and the Arab League has now "irreparably collapsed" and that the first priority is to "try to prevent civil war and sectarian violence".
When demonstrations first erupted in Egypt and Tunisia, President Bashar al-Assad declared that this would never happen in Syria. Indeed when it did he made a speech in the Syrian parliament bizarrely blaming the protests on foreign inspired agitators and saboteurs. Inevitably more conflict followed. Relying on limited but genuine personal popularity and the security and armed forces, he believed that he could repeat the successful crushing of dissent by his father 30 years ago.
This fundamental miscalculation, and the sheer brutality of the military response, has meant that Syria is now a pariah in the Arab world. The almost universal view now is that the regime is finished. This week representatives of the Syrian opposition are in London at the invitation of William Hague. They are not united. The main sticking point is whether to favour or reject outside intervention. The Muslim Brotherhood and some members of the largest opposition group, the Syrian National Council, would like to see Muslim Turkey intervene. Others of a more secular bent believe that this would effectively provoke a civil war.
Syria has a remarkably long tradition of religious tolerance between the 75% Sunni population and the Alawite, Druze and Christian minorities. Because the President is an Alawite, as are key security figures, already sectarian violence has flared up, with real fear gripping the minorities. In consequence there is tension in neighbouring Lebanon too, with its fragile religious mix.
What everybody in the opposition now knows, whether inside or out of the country, is that the situation is now deteriorating very rapidly. The economy is in tatters. The much more assertive Arab League is hosting a conference in Cairo on Thursday to achieve a common position amongst the opposition groups on the critical issue of intervention. The relationship between the Arab League and Syria has now irreparably collapsed. They may secure condemnation of Syria in the United Nations General Assembly but the real prize would be to persuade Russia and China not to use their vetoes in the Security Council. Isolation would then be complete.
The first priority now is to try to prevent civil war and sectarian violence, for clear reassurance to be given to the frightened minorities, and to plan an exit for the Assad regime.
Whatever the final outcome is, the political topography of the region will never be the same again.
Dods Parliamentary Communications Ltd