Three million voters have abandoned Tony Blair over Iraq, according a private Labour Party poll disclosed to the press.
A report in the Independent newspaper on Thursday claimed that the government is facing a closer than expected bid for re-election next year because seven per cent of the electorate have lost faith in the prime minister.
The type of voter that is causing party strategists most concern are middle-class people attracted to Blair in 1997, who did not oppose the Iraq war but feel he is now untrustworthy and too concerned with foreign affairs.
The group is much bigger than the professionals who were against the conflict all along who, the research suggests, are lost to anti-war parties.
At the annual Labour conference next week, this disillusioned group, potentially big enough to bring Blair's Commons majority within reach of the opposition parties, is to be main target of ministers' speeches which will set a forward-looking and primarily domestic agenda.
It is hoped that a concerted push between now and polling day can still win round the recently deserted, many of whom are planning to abstain, although ongoing events in Iraq could yet derail the plan.
In contrast those that opposed the war from the start are considered to be already lost to the Liberal Democrats or others.
Cabinet ministers were briefed on the research in political session last week and are using it to tailor their conference messages.
Under the conference slogan "a better life for all", Blair will also make a fresh attempt to show he is now fully focused on improving public services in a Labour third term.
Earlier this month in a speech to the TUC he acknowledged the impression that he had been distracted by the war on terrorism.
"Even if I've never been away, it's time to show I'm back," he said.
