Highland Lows

The Cameronian effect used to reach no further than the Trent. Then came Crewe and Nantwich. And while the northward surge may have momentum, Tories still face a formidable obstacle at the River Tweed.

On the far bank stand the Nationalists. And under Alex Salmond’s premiership these past 13 months, the SNP has been enjoying both the spoils of power and their opponents’ disarray. They are preparing for a push on Labour’s 40 Scottish seats at Westminster, where they now have six MPs. Not only do they hope to brush the Tories aside: they hope the prospect of an English-dominated Tory government at Westminster could be ideal in boosting support for independence at the referendum they want in autumn 2010.

How have they stayed in power with only a 36 per cent share of Scottish Parliament seats? That’s thanks to the Scottish Tories – a co-operative opposition, trying to look relevant again, and doing deals on priority issues.

Scottish polling evidence – none too reliable – shows only the slightest sign of a Cameron bounce. That should worry the Tory leadership, and not only because it would be humiliating to get little more than today’s solitary seat – David Mundell’s in border country. It also highlights the possibility, north and south, that the bounce is more anti-Labour than pro-Tory. Where Scots have a credible protest option in the SNP, it seems they prefer that to the Tories.

It is also that Scots harbour long, bitter memories of Conservative governments perceived as hostile to Scottish identity and ambitions.

For this, there have been repeated apologies and attempts to repair the damage. Scottish Tories have gained organisational autonomy, even if they don’t use it much. They champion Scotland’s devolved institutions against UK Labour ministers, who fall repeatedly into traps set by SNP provocation. They joined Labour and the Lib Dems in a devolution review heading for more powers, including tax.

They have embraced Scotland’s statist preferences, including free care for the elderly. One of their MSPs is even steering a bill into statute that will create a register of tartans. But somehow it doesn’t work, or at least not yet.

Grumbling focuses on Annabel Goldie, Tory leader at Holyrood. A big, wry and well-liked personality, dubbed ‘Dave Cameron’s favourite Scottish auntie’, her career has thrived more through others’ misfortunes than through her ambition, and sometimes it shows. This lawyer relies on her comfort zone of tough justice and more prisons, but is less convincing on Cameronian greenery, empathy and emotion. Then again, there’s no stand-out alternative.

So what should David Cameron do? Be patient. Don’t get caught interfering. Avoid the temptation of English nationalism. When arguing for the UK union, make it sound more than historic. Tolerate and show willing on Scottish obsessions with constitutional powers. Mentor a charismatic Scottish leader, ideally not from Eton.

And there’s always the Bavarian solution, where the Christian Democrats’ southern cousins, the Christian Social Union, are a separate party that aligns only at federal level. A fact-finding mission to a Munich bierkeller might be in order.