Beaches and the airwaves

After weeks of confusion, the prime minister’s belated decision to rule out a snap autumn poll, announced just as MPs returned to Westminster last October, set the tone for the parliamentary year to come.

Now at the end of that year, Conservative MPs will leave Westminster this week with a spring in their step after enjoying large and sustained advantages in the polls, while many Labour MPs leave exhausted by the long slog to the recess, morale sapped by economic woes and a fear that the electorate has made up its mind about the government and is prepared to give the Tories a chance.

So what can the parties do over the summer? Labour backbenchers have been told that more ministers than usual will be on hand over the next few months to help campaigning on the ground and to fill the TV studios making the government’s case. However, such is the current media climate, any announcement of positive news or new initiatives from the government – on crime figures, on petrol duty, on youth violence – is met with charges of cynical manipulation to fit the needs of the latest by-election. In contrast, the media hangs on David Cameron’s every word.

Cameron’s poll advantage has also given him authority over his party. Earlier this month George Osborne failed to rule out the possibility of raising taxes if he opens the books as chancellor as sees a black hole in the public finances. Yet, there was no right-wing rush to the airwaves to denounce the leadership and proclaim the sanctity of tax cuts.

Lib Dem leader Nick Clegg is also getting a fair hearing. He proposes tax plans that would sharply reduce the burden on the low and moderately paid, and force the better off to contribute more by removing allowances in capital gains tax and pension relief. Clegg must use the summer to sell these plans to sceptical voters, and convince them that the figures stand up. The Lib Dem leader will tell his MPs that a cash-strapped electorate will give him a fair hearing, and with the Conservatives not guaranteeing tax cuts, he could have spotted a useful gap in the political market. But how many Lib Dem MPs will enthusiastically expound the virtues of lower taxes and a smaller state?

If Labour MPs conclude over the next few months that a decisive shift in the electorate has taken place and the next election is lost, come October discipline will weaken and inertia will take over the government.
Most at Westminster now believe that the next election is the Conservatives to lose. The parliamentary year that started in flux ends with a new consensus. And the Labour leadership has its work cut out this summer to convince its backbenchers that the Tories are beatable and that Labour has the ideas and energy for another term in office.