Westminster Scotland Wales Northern Ireland London European Union Local
ePolitix.com

 
[ Advanced Search ]

Login | Contact | Terms | Accessibility

Morgan warns Blair of Labour defeat
Tony Blair and Rhodri Morgan

Labour will lose the next general election unless it resolves its leadership wrangles quickly, the first minister of Wales has said.

In a blunt warning to the prime minister, Rhodri Morgan calls on him to provide "clarity" about the timetable for a handover.

And in an interview with ePolitix.com, he tells Labour in Westminster to remember that divided parties "never win elections".

The first minister added that next year's Scottish parliament and Welsh assembly elections would pose a "giant mid-term test" for Labour.

The party would also need to "work really hard" to renew its appeal to both 'middle England' and its traditional heartland supporters, Morgan said.

In a wide-ranging interview, he told ePolitix.com that Wales secretary Peter Hain would be a "strong candidate" to replace John Prescott when he steps down as deputy prime minister.

But whichever contender Labour opts for as deputy leader, they would have to work as an electoral "counterweight" to Gordon Brown's Scottish roots.

The deputy would have to be someone "who reaches the parts Gordon cannot reach".

Morgan on the Labour leadership

Morgan told ePolitix.com: "Split parties never win elections.

"If the electorate gets the feeling that there is interminable wrangling and division over the succession then that is very unhelpful in the run up to the Scottish and Welsh elections in May next year.

"We need clarity over the succession of some sort. It is now very much up to the prime minister because the cards are all in his hands and he won a working majority and it is up to him."

The first minister indicated that he is impatient for the situation to be resolved in the coming months, well before the May 2007 round of elections.

"Clarity is the key thing but we have to see what happens in the autumn and winter," he said.

The first minister added that the assembly and parliamentary elections had become a "giant" mid-term test for Labour.

"I am sure that the prime minister is very conscious of the fact that the key mid-term test for any Labour government now is not by-elections caused by the untimely death or resignation of an MP, it's the Welsh and Scottish elections. They are a giant mid-term test," he said.

"They are almost always at the mid-term difficult period, two years after a general election, 2007 is not going to be any different and they will be very tough for that reason.

"Almost all governments are unpopular mid-term and somehow or other we have to make sure Labour in Wales and Scotland are not too badly affected by that."

Morgan on Labour's heartlands

Morgan warned that Labour is failing to hang on to its working class core support.

It would require "hard work" to retain support in the party's traditional heartlands and rebuild a broad-based coalition.

"When Labour is successful it is so because it gets right the magic recipe of blending the mushy peas with the guacamole," the first minister told ePolitix.com.

"The key thing for the party now is to get back that recipe that we got right in 1945, 1966 and 1997.

"Sometimes the aims of getting a big middle class vote in as well as a solid working class vote, which Labour has to have to win, diverge.

"Sometimes we lose the recipe and we have to get it back again and work really hard to do so.

"We are in one of those phases now where we do have to work really hard to do that."

Morgan on the deputy leadership

The first minister also said that Hain, the Wales and Northern Ireland secretary, would make a good deputy prime minister.

Asked if he thought Hain would make a good successor to Prescott, Morgan said: "Yes I do, there is no question about that.

"At this moment there isn't a contest and there isn't a vacancy but we all know behind the scenes that there will be one in the not too distant future.

"If we did have clarity and a timetable than we would know who the candidates were.

"There are several potential candidates. What you are looking for, if we assume Gordon Brown will be the leader, is a counterweight to him.

"There is a very strong argument for having a woman deputy prime minister, there is a very strong argument for having someone based somewhere south of Birmingham.

"You can see the appeal of Alan Johnson as the ultimate cheeky cockney would do very well, Jack Straw, although he represents Blackburn is a Londoner himself so would fit the bill there, and Peter Hain would be a strong candidate.

"You have to look at it in terms of working out where Gordon wouldn't appeal and filling that gap with someone who would.

"You need someone who reaches the parts Gordon cannot reach."

The leader of the Conservatives in the Welsh assembly, Nick Bourne, said: "It may well be true that when a leader gives a date for retiring there will be some jockeying for position and playing to the gallery - but that is happening with Labour in Wales too."

"Rhodri Morgan's decision to step down as first minister in 2009 is already diverting attention away from the important issues facing Wales as his senior colleagues look towards the succession and their own careers."

Published: Thu, 10 Aug 2006 12:02:00 GMT+01
Author: Edward Davie

"Almost all governments are unpopular mid-term and somehow or other we have to make sure Labour in