Key to election is 'keeping up with Joneses'

The emergence of 'Generation Jones' as a major UK political force could be set to make its mark on the forthcoming election, according to a senior pollster.

Already highlighted as key to President Bush's re-election, polling company CommunicateResearch and media agency Carat has uncovered data that suggests the politically volatile 39 to 50-year-old age bracket may yet deliver a Conservative victory on May 5.

Dubbed 'Generation Jones', the group is said to have an inclination to vote and the most at stake in the election economically.

Polls suggest this dynamic section of society has become one of the most powerful electoral forces in Britain, possibly holding the key to restoring Tory fortunes.

Andrew Hawkins, director of CommunicateResearch, said: "Many 'Generation Joneses' began their political lives as Tory voters, and if the Conservatives want to win next month, they will need to draw this crucial group back."

The group first voted in the elections of 1979 or '83 and Hawkins believes these formative votes lead many of them to feel an allegiances to the Tories.

Speaking at an ePolitix.com Stakeholders event, he said that they "thought the Conservatives were the party of economic integrity but they turned their backs on them in later life and deserted the party".

If the Tories were able to re-establish the 'disused track' with the Joneses, Hawkins said, the party could pull the centre of political gravity back away from Labour.

"The Joneses represent an explosive opportunity for the Conservatives, they are the most likely group to switch votes from one party to another," he said.

"They have the highest stake in the election economically and play a key role in education and tax. This group will be critical to the Conservative's eventual re-election."

But the Conservatives do not appear to have captured the Jones's attention in recent years, with many strategists questioning how much resonance the party's current election messages have had with the group.

'Dog whistling' on single issues alone may not be sufficient, Hawkins said, adding that the Tories need to "shout from the roof tops on tax and education" if they are to stand a chance of winning.

Positioned between the 'baby boomers' on one side and the 'Generation X'ers' on the other, the Joneses are said to be the first real group to display political 'switchability' and have come to symbolise the breakdown in party loyalty.

"There is so much at stake for this group, pensions looming on the horizon, education issues for their offspring, and of course personal taxation issues as they are at the height of their earning potential. The Joneses will take more trouble to decide how to vote," Hawkins said.

"They are resistant to spin and flakey messaging and once you lose their trust it is hard to win back."