Rarely can an old year have ended, or a new one have begun, on a more sombre note.  I ended my last piece, written just before Christmas 2004, speculating about the forthcoming General Election and then, within a matter of days, almost everything was swept from the newspapers and television screens by the catastrophic events in the Indian Ocean.  The tsunami reduced those events controlled by mere humans to their proper proportions and reminded us all of how relatively powerless we are in the face of the forces of nature.

 But the tsunami did other things too.  It reminded us how crucial it is to devote resources to adequate protective measures, whether one is dealing with the threat of terrorism or a threat from the oceans.  Perhaps the saddest thing of all about the events of December 26th is that the death toll would have been a fraction of what it was had there been an early-warning system in force around the Indian Ocean.  The disaster had other repercussions too.  As the world united in grief the British people, in particular, united in a remarkable display of spontaneous generosity which itself had a galvanising effect upon Government. 

But in this age of instant news a disaster which dominated headlines at the beginning of January had all but vanished from them by the beginning of February.  Even the remarkably and encouragingly successful election in Iraq on January 30th pushed General Election fever from the front page for only a couple of days. 

At Westminster almost every conversation has an election background.  Government and Opposition are vying with each other in producing five-year plans in an abundance, and with an abandon, that almost rivals the Soviets in the 1930s. 

That is the legitimate and, up to a point, attractive side of electioneering.  We have seen the dirty tactics at work too.  As if in retaliation for the “Demon Eyes” posters of Mr Blair produced by a panic-stricken Conservative Party some years ago a distinctly wobbly Labour Party produced its despicable “Flying Pigs” poster.  I said in my last piece that whilst Oppositions rarely won elections, Governments not infrequently lost them and, whatever the commentators say, there are a great many members of the Labour Party in Parliament, including a number of members of Her Majesty’s Government – who are far from confident of victory on 5th May.  But that we will be called to our respective colours to do battle on that day as seems almost beyond doubt.  The pre campaign has gathered a momentum of its own which is almost unstoppable.  Only the Prime Minister himself can bring the speculation to an end and he seems strongly disinclined to do so.

I have long taken the view that Parliaments should serve their full term, unless the Government of the day is defeated on a vote of no confidence in the House of Commons.  We have fixed terms for everything else – from Parish Council to European Parliamentary elections and so why not a fixed term for Westminster?  Then everyone would know precisely how things stood and although governments would still, inevitably, try to massage figures and present things in the best possible light, no government would be able to cut and run if it had an adequate working majority.  As it is we have effectively a four-year Parliament when a government has a large majority and a five-year Parliament when it has not.  So, Mrs Thatcher went after four years in 1983, and again in 1987, whilst Mr Major soldiered on until 1992, following the fall of Mrs Thatcher, and from 1992 to 1997 as he watched his party implode, his majority disappear as he vainly waited for something to turn up.  Mr Blair went to the country after four years, in spite of his 160 plus majority, and obtained another one in 2001.  Now he clearly thinks that he can obtain a third triumph in May, even though, as I indicated earlier, that is view that is not shared throughout his Parliamentary Party. 

By the time I write my next piece we shall all know what is to happen but I will stick my neck out and make a forecast.  Mr Blair will indeed opt for May 5th but he will not get the result he confidently predicts.  We will, I think, have a Parliament where the Government of the day has a very small majority indeed.  I think it is too close to call as to whether that majority will be Mr Blair’s or Mr Howard’s.  The Chinese curse, “may you live in interesting times” is about the be fulfilled once more.  There will be very interesting times ahead for whoever has the key to Number 10 on May 6th.