Letter to Tony Blair commissioned by the Guardian, prior to meeting with George Bush, unpublished due to a misunderstanding.

Dear Tony,

Despite what you, Jack and Geoff say publicly, you must know that the situation in Iraq is disastrous and could get much worse.  If Shia resistance to occupation becomes established British forces will be in much greater danger.  You therefore need to stand up to the US more firmly than you did over the rush to war, or the flawed arrangements for reconstruction. 

The right answer is to put in place the arrangements that should have been made at the end of the three week war. 

The UN should be given the mandate to help the Iraqis form a new interim government and a timetable for elections.  Co-alition forces should be put under the authority of the UN and other countries asked to bring in troops as US and UK troop presence is phased out.  This would signal to Iraqis that they will get their country back.  But it means an end to US plans for a long term presence in Iraq.  Despite Bush’s problems, he may not yet be ready for this.  This is your problem.  Many insults have been thrown at the UN – particularly by elements close to the Bush administration.  But recent post conflict reconstruction experience – Mozambique, Rowanda, Sierra Loene, East Timor and even Kosovo and Afghanistan – there has been nothing as incompetent as the US arrangements in post conflict Iraq.  This has caused enormous suffering to the people of Iraq – more that 10,000 civilians have died since the invasion.  It has also inflamed the Middle East and strengthened Al Qaeda. 

You might ask what you can do.  It is clear that you have had very little leverage up to now.  The answer is that you must be willing to talk to other members of the Security Council and vote with them if necessary.  Bush cannot afford to have the UK abandon him before elections in November.  This is your leverage. 

Good luck, I hope you can summon the strength to do the right thing.  The mistakes of Iraq are endangering the Middle East and the whole post Cold War world.  It is in all our interest to work to improve the situation.  This means we must get to the root of the problem in the Middle East by establishing a Palestinian state alongside Israel.  You have said the right things on this.  You need to make clear to Bush that you mean it and act accordingly.

Yours sincerely,

Clare Short.